Most CPG brands say they’re safe from volatility in the international market. But in 2025, when you zoom out across 50+ CPG companies, a very different — and far riskier — picture emerges.
For years, “tariff exposure” has been treated as a binary metric. Either your ingredients were imported from high-risk countries, or they weren’t.
But with the return of U.S.–China tariff escalation and the expiration of the U.S.–EU Airbus truce, 2025 proves that vulnerability isn’t just about where your primary ingredients come from — it’s about the totality of your sourcing, packaging, and operational structure.
We analyzed 50+ food, beverage, and wellness brands to see the impact of tariffs on their business.
A key takeaway? Cost creep from a volatile market is much more widespread than most companies realize.
an example depicting cost creep due to tariffs
The Scorecard: Where CPG Market Risk Really Falls in 2025
Based on ingredient and packaging vulnerabilities for 50+ real CPG brands, we’ve grouped companies into three risk categories and laid out the necessary steps to prepare themselves for the next market upheaval.
🟢 Low Risk
Low-risk brands have supply chains that are mostly anchored domestically, or in USMCA-aligned markets (which are currently tariff-exempt). Because they import nothing, or very little, their exposure to volatile price inputs is minimal, protecting their cost structure.
But low-risk brands still aren’t out of the woods. They need to watch out for overall price creep, such as increasing packaging costs caused by aluminum and steel tariffs, and for secondary impacts like changing consumer behavior.
Real examples:
A $100M+ flour and grain company sources and packages almost all of its ingredients domestically, and doesn’t import any cost-drivers. The company’s vulnerability is minimal.
A popular condiment brand buys the bulk of its ingredients from the US and Mexico. However, it imports its garlic and its packaging from China, now carrying 34% tariffs. The brand must strategize about re-sourcing versus cost absorption.
A successful animal-product company raises its animals domestically, using domestically sourced materials and packaging. Their supply chain is unaffected by import tariffs; however, the brand also exports its goods, and may lose business because of reciprocal tariffs.
Do low-risk brands need to fortify themselves against risk? Short answer: yes.
Prepare for domestic interruptions. Does your brand rely on domestic ingredients or packaging that are likely to become more expensive as other companies newly jockey for the same goods? For example, 60% of garlic is currently imported from China; significant tariffs on Chinese imports mean domestic garlic prices are set to rise.
Pay attention to consumer behavior: Even if your brand isn’t impacted, your consumers are. Circana’s chief retail advisor Marshal Cohen noted in a statement that “dynamic shifts in consumption” are already occurring. “The consumer is in a state of confusion and trying to decipher how to prioritize their purchases in an environment of significant change.”
Position yourself for financial resilience. Prepare your company with tools that keep you agile and effective. Do you have real-time trade spend visibility so you can adjust budgets on the fly as market situations evolve? Are you preventing revenue leakage with proper deduction management? Is the ROI on your trade spend maximized?
🟡 Medium Risk
Medium risk brands rely on specific ingredients or packing materials imported from countries that are tariff-affected (or were recently tariffed). However, they have reasonable & reliable avenues through which those ingredients can be re-sourced without (1) sacrificing product integrity or (2) compromising brand identity.
Alternatively, if their ingredient can’t be re-sourced, potential cost increases will likely be modest enough to absorb.
For example:
A $5M condiment brand currently sources two primary ingredients (tomatoes and olive oil) from Italy, previously tariffed at 20%. The brand’s identity is built around flavor, not strict import sourcing, and tomatoes and olive oil of similar caliber are available domestically. If necessary, they could re-source these ingredients, but would lose time and money as they rebuild their supply chain.
A $100M+ snack brand has built its brand identity around using a specific type of oil in its product, but its source of that oil previously faced a 46% tariff. There are alternative import sources of oil, but it is not produced domestically. Because oil is a cost driver, they should be aware of how their production costs could increase as oil costs go up.
A candy company is specifically known for its Australian-made goods, and its value is tied to that import story. They cannot re-source their materials without losing the basis of their brand value. If Australian tariffs return to 10%, they’d be certain to experience financial loss, but should be able to absorb it.
What actions should medium-risk brands be taking right now to mitigate risk?
Identify all vulnerable ingredients and packaging. Do you use any rare ingredients or items that are only sold in a handful of countries? Identify which links in your supply chain would be most difficult to re-forge if broken.
Assess options for re-sourcing. Have a plan B (and a plan C) for where and how any imported ingredients or packaging can be replaced. Preparation and nimbleness are pivotal to survival.
Deploy forecasting tools. The best tool in quickly evolving situations is DATA. Utilize your TPM system for dynamic forecasting and scenario planning so you understand exactly what your brand will be up against in any situation. It isn’t possible to control uncertainty, but with the right data, you can control the effectiveness of your response.
Brands at high risk are typically vulnerable because their key ingredients or packaging are primarily imported from just one country, or only a small handful of countries. A tariff on those countries’ imports could cause an immediate disruption in their supply chain that would be difficult or impossible to repair. That may be compounded by increasing prices on imported packaging.
The overall effect could impact their core product lines, causing material margin impacts, and potentially leading to supply chain collapse.
Some present-day brands facing high risk:
A line of vegan food items uses a specific type of nut bought exclusively from Vietnam as the basis of nearly every product they sell. The few alternative sources are much more expensive. Any new tariffs or disruptions in trade with Vietnam could upend their financial models. In preparation, they model impacts of potential tariffs, and create a playbook for each scenario.
A $150M+ alternate soda brand is reliant on stevia and monkfruit as integral primary ingredients. Not only do they source them entirely from China, but 90% of all stevia and monkfruit are Chinese grown. Although the volume of this ingredient is minimal, it’s integral to the identity of their product. They face increased production costs, or a tricky re-alignment of their supply chain. The brand offsets the costs by re-energizing their trade spend with AI forecasting.
A beverage company’s sole, brand-defining ingredient is grown and processed in Thailand, previously saddled with 44% tariffs. If similar tariffs are re-instituted, the brand will have no choice but to absorb the price increases and/or pass them to the consumer. The company softens these losses by optimizing ROI with a TPM system that enables them to recover lost trade spend and optimizing promotional strategy.
Optimize cash flow. If it’s not possible to protect yourself from increasing costs, it’s time to optimize every other dollar. Are your trade spend dollars being deployed efficiently? Have you automated processes that waste precious human labor? Remember: protecting cash flow doesn’t mean avoiding investment - it means making smarter investments in tools that provide control and visibility.
Soften impact on brand identity. If the story of your brand is built on imported ingredients, have a contingency plan of campaigns geared to acclimatize - or even excite! - customers about the new sources.
Prioritize agility. During chaotic conditions, agility becomes a critical competitive advantage. If your systems are slowing you down instead of making you nimble, it’s time to update.
Packaging Is the Great Equalizer
One thing nearly all brands — regardless of risk tier — have in common?
Vulnerability to changes in packaging costs. Tariffs on imported aluminum, steel and glass are chipping away at the bottom line of nearly every CPG company. Brands are being pinched as they pay for the aluminum cans, glass jars, and steel trays they need to deliver consumers their goods.
These costs may seem negligible at first blush, but they hit every single unit of product. And as retailers push for sharper pricing, even a $0.02 increase per unit can be a deal-breaker.
Instinctually, many “low” risk brands across our analysis self-reported that they had minimal exposure to market vulnerability. However, a closer look under the hood revealed unexpected vulnerabilities. What pain points do CPG companies most often overlook?
Ingredient-level dependencies on single countries (often China or India). Reliance on a single country for an ingredient - even a minor one - can cause costly disruption.
No packaging-level tracking of COGS impact. Are you calculating how changes in the cost of packaging are affecting your overall profit?
Assuming that short-term supplier deals are sustainable. Volatility creates unsustainable pricing. Suppliers may initially absorb some costs to create and maintain relationships, but renegotiate at a much steeper rate when the term has ended.
In 2025, ignoring potential vulnerabilities and pitfalls is a dangerous game. In this time of unprecedented volatility, don’t let your company fall prey to a lack of preparation.
How Vividly Helps You Move Down the Risk Ladder
Vividly is your long-term partner in risk management. We arm your CPG company with the crucial tools you need to easily audit, model, and respond to tariff risk - all anchored within your trade planning workflow.
With Vividly, your company is nimble and prepared for whatever twists and turns tomorrow’s market brings.
Here are some questions we empower you to answer in a matter of minutes:
How will a 25% increase in vanilla costs affect the ROI on my promo?
Are glass bottle tariffs going to take a hit on my Q3 forecast?
I need to reroute promos away from exposed SKUs; how can I do that quickly and efficiently?
We equip you to do all of that, and much more, with Vividly. Because the real risk to your company isn’t vulnerability - it’s ignorance.
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